Slate Outlook:
Tonight’s NBA slate features a star-studded 5-Game slate that wraps up with Boston taking on the Lakers in LA at 10 PM EST. Five-gamers happen to be my personal favorite–the player pool is small, but not too small. FanDuel’s main GPP contest is a $7 NBA Shot with 51K entries, with $50K going to first. DraftKings features its normal $15 Fadeaway, with 31K entries and the usual $100K going to first place.
Key Injuries
Jrue Holiday – MIL | Questionable
Jrue is officially listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Warriors. I find it hard to believe that he ends up missing this game against the World Champs, and that he misses an opportunity to showcase his defense against Steph Curry. But if he does, that adds a ton of value to many of the other Bucks players– specifically Jevon Carter. He’s only $4,600 on FD and $3,300 on DK. You’ll also want to look out for guys like Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, and even George Hill, all who will likely have more opportunities and playing time.
De’Aaron Fox – SAC | Questionable
Fox has missed his past two games with a foot injury, and is officially listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Sixers. In his absence, no one really stepped up for the Kings. Malik Monk and Davion Mitchell were both busts in the two games that Fox missed. The only player who really took advantage of Fox’s absence was Sabonis, specifically in the first game that Fox missed against the Cavs. He put up 60+ Fantasy Points that game, and anyone who’s watched Sabonis over the years knows that he’s certainly capable of putting up big numbers. He’s averaging 42 Fantasy Points this season. If Fox misses tonight’s game, expect Sabonis’s projection to creep into the Mid-to-High 40s.
Value Plays:
Chris Paul – PHO
FanDuel: Salary: 7,200 | Projection: 37.47 FP | Projected Ownership: 39.65%
DraftKings: Salary: 6,200 | Projection: 38.1 FP | Projected Ownership: 60.65%
In a slate with not a whole lot of value at the Point Guard spot, Chris Paul stands out against the pack. He’s logged back-to-back 34-minute games since he’s come back from that heel injury. At just 6,200 on DraftKings, expect him to be owned by over half the field. He’s taking on a Rockets team who give up the MOST points to opposing point guards in the entire NBA. Not to mention Devin Booker is still out with that hamstring injury. If Jrue Holiday ends up missing tonight’s game, however, expect Jevon Carter to take over the Highest Value Point Guard spot. That being said, CP3 is still a lock for DraftKings. As far as FanDuel is concerned, he may be worth fading in a few lineups. While 7,200 is extremely cheap for Chris Paul, a blowout could mean he sits out the entire 4th quarter.
Jordan Poole – GSW
FanDuel: Salary: 6,400 | Projection: 32.94 FP | Projected Ownership: 36.55%
DraftKings: Salary: 6,400 | Projection: 35.04 FP | Projected Ownership: 30.5%
Since the Andrew Wiggins injury, Jordan Poole has really stepped up his game. He’s averaging 34 minutes, and 40 fantasy points per game in Wiggins’ absence. Yet for some reason, FanDuel and DraftKings haven’t really adjusted his price. He’s going up against a solid Bucks defense, however, which is why we’re not projected him too high. But even at his current projection, he’s still one of the top value plays on the slate.
Sleeper Pick
Let’s see if we can make it two days in a row of choosing an awesome sleeper pick. Yesterday, my sleeper pick was Myles Turner, and he definitely delivered. He was just 2% owned and finished the game with 47 fantasy points.
Russell Westbrook – LAL
FanDuel: Salary: 7,300 | Projection: 29.02 FP | Projected Ownership: 4.01%
DraftKings: Salary: 6,700 | Projection: 30.53 FP | Projected Ownership: 2.97%
Disclaimer: Huge bust potential here. I only like Russell Westbrook for the potential upside.
I’m starting to notice a pattern with Russell Westbrook–he performs much better in big-time games. And no regular-season game can possibly be bigger than tonight’s game against the team with the best record in the NBA–the Boston Celtics.
If you take a look at the Lakers’ most recent game against a marquee opponent, the Sixers, Russell Westbrook finished with a triple-double, and 50 fantasy points. He will be extremely low-owned and is around the same price-point as CP3. In fact, if you fade CP3 in FanDuel and throw in some Russell Westbrook, you will be super contrarian on a night where ownership percentages are going to be extremely high. I don’t advise fading CP3 too much on DK, however. That $6,200 price is way too cheap to pass up.