Slate Outlook:
Tonight’s NBA slate features 10 games which may perhaps be highlighted by the return of LaMelo Ball. After weak performances against the Bucks last night, many of the Warriors players look to have a bounce-back performance against one the NBA’s worst defenses–the Indiana Pacers. There are a ton of key questionable players, and a lot of value to be had if they miss tonight’s games. FanDuel’s main GPP contest is the $7.77 NBA Clutch Shot with 46K entries, with $50K going to first, while DraftKings features its normal $15 Fadeaway, with 31K entries and the usual $100K going to first place.
Key Injuries
Trae Young – ATL | Questionable
With Trae Young having missed the Hawks’ last game against the Grizzlies, many Hawks players stepped up with solid performances and good value. That being said, their solid fantasy performances didn’t result in a win, as the Hawks were blown out by a Ja Morant-less Memphis team. Perhaps the player who stepped up the most for the Hawks was Bogdanovic, who finished with 44 fantasy points. Aaron Holiday also overperformed, having finished with nearly 40 points.
Many of the Hawks players’ salaries have been adjusted upwards to reflect Trae Young’s pending injury. That being said, Bogdanovic and Aaron Holidays are still steals if Trae Young ends up missing. It’s hard to believe that Bogdanovic is only $5K on DK and $6K on FanDuel. Aaron Holiday would also be worth of consideration being in the low 4,000s on both FD and DK.
LaMelo Ball – CHA | Questionable
LaMelo Ball has officially been upgraded to “Questionable” for tonight’s game against the Pistons. However, I doubt a full return to action even if he does play, and would expect a minutes restriction from Steve Clifford. Ball would have to finish in the High 40s/Low 50s to justify his $8K salary. Even though Detroit gives up the 6th most Fantasy Points to opposing point guards, LaMelo Ball most likely isn’t worth the money.
Bradley Beal, Monte Morris, & Kristaps Porzingis – WAS | Questionable
Porzingis and Kuzma have been on an absolute tear without Bradley Beal. You can even throw Jordan Goodwin into that mix as well. If Porzingis ends up missing tonight, expect HIGH ownership for Kyle Kuzma. You may also want to throw in some Daniel Gafford into the mix at Center as well. Another guy you want to look out for is Corey Kispert. He hasn’t had a big fantasy performance in a while, but he’s been logging HEAVY minutes.
Basically, be on the lookout for the whole damn Wizards team.
D’Angelo Russell – MIN | Questionable
D-Lo is questionable for tonight’s game against the Clippers with a knee injury. Expect Jaylen Nowell to get the start if D-Lo does in fact miss the game. Gobert has already been on a tear since Towns’ injury, and his value might get a slight nudge upwards if D-Lo misses the game. The same applies to Anthony Edwards, but Ant’s price on DraftKings might be a little too high.
Value Plays:
Bogdan Bogdanovic – ATL
FanDuel: Salary: 6,000 | Projection: 31.03 FP | Projected Ownership: 11.51%
DraftKings: Salary: 5,000 | Projection: 32.38 FP | Projected Ownership: 49.02%
After a performance like Bogdan’s last one, 6K and 5K are both extremely cheap prices. On DK, Bogdan will be close to 50% owned considering that he’s just 5K and is coming off 44 fantasy points. And if Trae Young misses tonight’s game, expect Bogdan’s ownership to jump well north of 50% on DK. However, he is unfadeable on DK. Save your fades for someone less valueable.
On FD, his 11.5% projected ownership will probably jump into the 20’s-30s if Trae Young misses the game. Here, he may be worth fading in a few lineups, but not many.
Bam Adebayo – MIA (DK Only)
DraftKings: Salary: 8,300 | Projection: 42.11 FP | Projected Ownership: 23.96%
Bam is playing really solid basketball as of late. He’s going up against a Thunder team who give up the FOURTH MOST fantasy points to opposing Centers. Expect him to eat in the paint against the Thunder’s weak front-court. Also expect Bam to pick up some of the scoring slack for Jimmy Butler who is out tonight with a knee injury.
Jordan Poole – GSW (FD Only)
FanDuel: Salary: 6,700 | Projection: 38.42 FP | Projected Ownership: 30.94%
Poole is coming off an extremely weak performance last night against the Bucks. However, it wasn’t just Poole who had a weak performance–it was the entire Warriors team. I think their poor performances last night were more of a testament the the Bucks outstanding defense, and I expect Poole to have a bounceback performance tonight against the NBA’s 4th worst defense, the Indiana Pacers. At just $6,700, Poole is a great value play on FanDuel.
Sleeper Pick
Looks like I’m on a little hot-streak with my Sleeper Picks. Yesterday I chose Russell Westbrook as my sleeper pick, and he absolutely delivered. He finished with 57 fantasy points and was just TWO PERCENT OWNED. Here’s my sleeper pick for tonight–let’s see if we can keep it going.
Kyle Lowry – MIA
FanDuel: Salary: 6,900 | Projection: 32.09 FP | Projected Ownership: 5.04 %
DraftKings: Salary: 6,500 | Projection: 33.37 FP | Projected Ownership: 2.46 %
On a night like tonight where a lot of DFS players are going to be focused on Point Guards like Jordan Poole (at least he’s eligible for point guard) and potential backups if key players miss tonight’s games, this leaves a prime opportunity for someone like Kyle Lowry to creep up on everyone.
OKC gives up the 5th most Fantasy Points to opposing Point Guards. Even further, Kyle Lowry averages 38 fantasy points per game in games that Jimmy Butler has missed this season. He should be relatively low-owned, is logging heavy minutes this season, and has already had a 50+ point performance this season in a game that Jimmy has missed. Expect him to go hard at 2nd-year point-guard Josh Giddey, and don’t be surprised if he uses that donkey to post him up in the paint.